Pillar POV
Evidence BReverse Dunning-Kruger: Coaching High-Literacy AI Teams
Your most confident AI users often outrun the evidence. Harness Δ to keep them honest.
Overconfidence isn’t an ego problem—it is a measurement problem. Track Δ at the edge where high performers live.
Executive TL;DR
- •High-literacy teams show reverse Dunning-Kruger: Δ spikes when experts skip Fair Trial guardrails
- •Δ >8 for 3 runs triggers intervention; pairs high performers with reviewers to keep shortcuts honest
- •Teams correlating Δ + TLX catch when overconfidence masks fatigue—pairing restores collaboration
Do this week: Flag 3 high-Δ runs in Analyzer today; schedule 20-min coaching with top performer this week
The pattern
Teams assume novices are risky and experts are safe. In AI adoption, the opposite happens. ICs with the highest literacy take shortcuts, skip reviewer time, and argue from vibes. Their Δ spikes, reviewers burn out, and trust erodes.
Reverse Dunning-Kruger signal
Watch for self-ratings that drift +8 above reviewer scores for three consecutive runs. Attach a TLX comment and require a Fair Trial note before the next sprint.
Fix it with evidence loops
- Instrument self-ratings. Capture confidence immediately after each run, before reviewers weigh in.
- Make Δ a tile, not a spreadsheet. Visualize it beside TLX so leaders see where fatigue and overconfidence collide.
- Coach with real outputs. Bring the annotated artifact, not a debate. Highlight hallucinations, reviewer minutes, and the exact prompt drift that caused them.
““We stopped arguing the minute Δ was layered on the creative review board. Suddenly, the ‘AI super users’ wanted to pair up again.””
Link to the help center
Send every coach to /help/overestimation. The page shows the Δ formula, traffic-light thresholds, and a ready-made coaching block (Calibrate, Constrain, Cross-check). No new slide needed.
Micro playbook
- ✓Require Overestimation Δ in every executive readout. ±5 is normal; beyond that triggers a retro.
- ✓Pair Δ with TLX from
/help/tlxso you can see if overconfidence hides fatigue. - ✓Follow up with a 3-minute demo run so new hires experience the scoring in action.
Apply this now
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PM Quickstart Guide
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Next Steps
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